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Saturday, October 21, 2006

Wild Mythical National Championship Prediction

An M-Zone Exclusive

Well, the first BCS rankings are out and that means it’s time to predict the outcome of the Mythical National Championship Game. Here’s my hasty, uninformed, trying- to-be-the-guy-who-says- it-first prediction for the sports page headline on 9 January 2007—that’s the morning after the BCS Championship Game for those of you who still think January 1st is for bowl games—and it is: Auburn Loses.

Some prediction, huh? Here’s my reasoning. The top five in the BCS rankings are—in descending order—Ohio State, USC, Michigan, Auburn, and West Virginia. First, we can all stop having nightmares about an undefeated, cupcake devouring, West Virginia making it since they’re already too far down in the rankings. It would take a rash of major upsets to have all four teams ranked above them lose games. Next, out of the picture is USC. Sure, they’re undefeated but they’ve struggled with some fairly mediocre PAC-10 teams and they go through a stretch in November when they play Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks. They’re going to lose at least one of those games and then they’re out.

That leaves Ohio State, Michigan, and Auburn left. Auburn is into the fairly easy part of their schedule. The toughest game is against their archrival, a less than impressive Alabama. So, Auburn should win out and stay in the running. The fact Ohio State and Michigan play one another virtually guarantees Auburn will play in Glendale on 8 January since one team will win—and also go to Glendale—and one team will lose—and go to the Pasadena. Also, for either Michigan or Ohio State to lose before they it will take the apocalypse. Or a mini-ice age. Or something that is just really crazy to happen.

As for who will win the 18 November match-up between Michigan and Ohio State? I’m not touching that one yet. But, I’ve seen Ohio State, Michigan, and Auburn play and either Michigan or Ohio State beat Auburn. Auburn’s got a good defense but not good enough to stop Ohio State and their offense would get completely shut down by Michigan’s defense.

So, there you have it, 18 November is the de facto Mythical National Championship game with the winner going on to beat Auburn on 8 January. Don’t forget, you heard it here first. Or, you can discuss amongst yourselves.

17 comments:

Brad said...

Perhaps. Auburn could concievably still play Florida again in the SEC Championship, and without the advantage of home field and Florida presumably not making boneheaded turnovers, Florida could easily win the rematch. However, I do think Florida would probably still lose to either Michigan/OSU.

Howard21 said...

Just be homer like the rest of us and say Michigan wins.

Allaha said...

Even if Auburn wins out, there is a legitimate chance they do NOT go to the SEC championship because of their loss to Arkansas (who needs two SEC losses before being trumped by an Auburn that goes undefeated for the remainder of the season).

Does anyone else think it is unseemly for Auburn to play for the MNC whey they cannot even win their division, much less their conference?

Anonymous said...

It would clearly be a shame if Auburn plays in the National Chamionship without winning their conference.

And it absolutely could happen, because deciding who plays in the NC using a mathematical formula is fucking retarded.

However, we are lucky that the two best teams will surely play each other in the real NC on Nov. 18th.
The winner will handily win the next game. I hope its OSU, but either way, Auburn, USC, WVU, Florida or any other team will lose in Glendale

Anonymous said...

Well, if Auburn makes it to Glendale, (looong Shot) it really is fair. We got left out of the Orange Bowl after going undefeated and uncontested in most games much like OSU this year. OK and Nebraska played for the NC without winning the conference. The Big 10 and Pac 10 do not have CC games and could easily Tie for the title of conf champion with the same record as another team. We cannot Tie since we have a CC Game. I hope you are right because We are very good in Big Games! We have won 8 of last 9 vs top 10 teams. May not be such an easy win afterall.

College Bob said...

No team has punched their ticket to Glendale just yet. However, I like the prediction that Auburn will be there, as posted earlier, T.T. has a great record against the top ten.

Reed4AU said...

Anon said "It would clearly be a shame if Auburn plays in the National Chamionship without winning their conference." I would find it neither shameful or unprecedented, since it's already happened twice with NU and OU.

Anonymous said...

reed4au,

Just because it happened before doesn't mean can't be shameful. Nebraska and OU going to the NC in years past was also shame.

Also, I never said it was unprecedented, just stating it would be bullshit. They may not even win their division within the SEC (Arkansas)

Anonymous said...

Screw Auburn. Those wimps schedule weak teams in an attempt to work the system and sqeak through. Until the SEC schedules tough teams in OOC games I have no pity when they get left behind. Afterall the SEC are the bastards who brought us this whole BCS mess to begin with.

write off SC if you want but we just keep winning. So far we have not dominated much, but we also are unscathed through the toughest schedule in footall to date.Right now I think we would be a big underdog to Michigan or Ohio State, but it might not be that way in January. Just win your games and we will win ours.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:17--

Teams that don't have the benefit of playing "weak teams" in their conference schedule would simply be stupid to schedule tough games in non-conf. I know that games against Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State are really grueling, but some of us actually root for teams that play in legitimate conferences.

Joe said...

Auburn will lose to Alabama. Mark it down.

BaggyPantsDevil said...

Howard21--The poorly Photoshopped picture reflects my homerism.

For others, I think Auburn's loss to Arkansas almost helps them out since--provided Arkansas continues to win as well--it relieves them of the burden of the SEC title game.

It may not seem fair, but they are at #4 in the BCS rankings, have a fairly light schedule from here on out, and at least one of the three teams ranked higher than they are is guaranteed a loss. They don't control their destiny, but they just need USC to stumble on one of three consecutive potentially tough games.

beast in bama said...

Assuming USC loses to Cal, the Bears enter the picture. If Tennessee continues to win (and the easiest part of their schedule is ahead), how can you put Cal above Tennessee? Like Auburn, Tennessee could play for the MNC without first playing in Atlanta.

With Auburn entering the weakest portion of their schedule, will they be able to maintain their ranking given the less-than-stellar status of their opposition? (However, I agree with Joe about Alabama vs. Auburn.)

And who's to say that the LOSER of the Nov. 18 Michigan/OSU game still isn't the second best team in the country? Are you against the idea or just trying not to jinx it? If it's a close game on Nov. 18, why not have a rematch in January?

I agree with BPD in one respect - Auburn doesn't beat either UM or OSU. Cal matches up better with Michigan than with OSU, but I still believe UM wins. Florida or Tennessee would provide the best matchups for both UM/OSU, but both of those teams have more glaring weaknesses than their Big 10/11 counterparts.

I haven't heard much talk of a Michigan-Ohio State rematch for the MNC, but at this point in the season, I don't see two better teams across the country. Isn't that the point of all this - getting the two best teams together at the end of the season for an all-out shootout?

BaggyPantsDevil said...

beast,

I think a good case good be made for the 18 November matchup between Michigan and Ohio State being a game between the two best teams in the country, especially is Southern Cal loses. If Southern Cal wins out, I’d say they’ve earned the #2 ranking.

I’ve seen Auburn and Florida and although their defenses would trouble me against Michigan, I would absolutely LOVE watching Brandon Cox and Chris Leak trying to cope with Michigan’s pass rush.

Anonymous said...

How can you fear an Auburn team that couldn't even pull it together last season in the Capital One bowl last year vs. Wisconsin?

Anonymous said...

First off, last year is over, so the dickhead mentioning last year's performance by Auburn in a non-meaningful bowl game can go lick himself.
As for the whiners (Allaha- I'm generally looking in your direction) that say Auburn shouldn't play for the championship if they don't even win their conference championship game, just remember, your pansy ass conference doesn't even schedule one so SoCal/Michigan/OSU shouldn't go to the championship game either using your logic.
I respect the Big Ten fans that think OSU/Michigan could easily handle Auburn (or repace with Tenn of UofF), I think it would be a closer matchup than either of you think and a great game to watch. I think both OSU and Michigan are given credit in the polls right now based a lot on their pre-season rankings. Other than that- I see the ACC and Big Ten as being very similar this year; a couple big programs kicking major ass (albeit OSU and Michigan perfect so far), and the rest of their respective conferences sucking major ass.

BaggyPantsDevil said...

Anon 10:10--With the 18 November Michigan-Ohio State game, there’s no need for a conference championship. Hell, there’s hardly a need for a BCS championship this season. As for the ACC looking a lot like the Big Ten, sure, whatever, just give them what are arguably the two best teams in the country.