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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

MZone Top 25

The BCS standings are out and Michigan is sitting pretty at #3. Same as in our latest entry in MGoBlog's Blogpoll. First here are our thoughts on why we voted the way we did, leave us yours in the comments section.

* Benny and I struggled with USC and Michigan as to who should be #2 and who should be #3. In the end, a case could be made for either.

* Louisville looked average in their win against Cinci. As such, we dropped them because, as we've always said, it's not just about being undefeated. It's who you play. And the Cardinals' big win over Miami isn't looking so big anymore.

* A case could be made for either Tennessee, Cal, Texas or Auburn in the #4 spot but Texas has only beaten Oklahoma and got roughed up at home by OSU, Cal lost to Tennessee but beat a pretty good Oregon team and Auburn beat Florida but didn't get an offensive TD and their loss was at home to a Razorback team that got smoked by SC. Hence, Tennessee takes the #4 spot in our poll.

* We still have nothing judge WVU by. And judging by our ranking, we still don't believe. Would they still be undefeated if they played Florida's schedule? Highly doubtful.

* Michigan's win against Wisconsin is looking better each weekend.

* The order for spots 21-25 could be picked out of a hat.

RankTeamDelta
1Ohio State--
2Southern Cal 1
3Michigan 1
4Tennessee 1
5California 3
6Texas 1
7Auburn 4
8Florida 6
9Louisville 3
10West Virginia 1
11Notre Dame 1
12Clemson 1
13Georgia Tech 2
14LSU 2
15Arkansas 4
16Oregon 2
17Wisconsin 7
18Nebraska 4
19Rutgers 1
20Boston College 6
21Boise State 2
22Oklahoma 4
23Texas A&M 3
24Missouri 7
25Wake Forest 1





Dropped Out: Iowa (#12), Georgia (#14), Virginia Tech (#21), Washington (#25).

22 comments:

Sports on a Schtick said...

Since you guys don't have a problem with ranking one-loss teams over undefeated ones (see West Virginia), why keep an unimpressive USC at #2?

Yost said...

Good question, SoaS. Benny and I had a big discussion about this. He leaned toward Michigan, I leaned toward SC, especially since we play OSU. Thus, it really won't matter.

SC had two nice wins (Arkansas and Nebraska). Michigan has two nice wins (ND and, now, Wisco). SC won but 7 against a good/not great ASU team. Michigan did the same against PSU.

Again, it could have gone the other way and we could change it before our final ballot is due Wednesday morning.

The King said...

How come we've got Arkansas so low? They beat Auburn, who beat Florida, who beat Tennessee, who beat Cal. And their only loss is to USC, an undefeated team, so their linear ranking really should be ahead of all the other 1 loss teams. Notre Dame and Texas also lost to undefeated teams, but neither ND or UT have really beaten anyone of note. Arkansas CRUSHED Auburn, the #4 team in the BCS (as of right now).

I don't think Arkansas will hold up, but if we're doing this based on on-field performance so far, they deserve to be well into the Top Ten.

Sports on a Schtick said...

Re: USC

The Arkansas game is a wash considering the Razorbacks didn't hit their stride until Mustain was entrenched as the starter. Plus the first game holds the least amount of weight when determining how good a team really is (see California, Georgia).

The last three nail-biters for the Trojans have come down to:

1) a failed Hail Mary by Washington State
2) the new clock rules and zebras foiling Washington's final drive
3) Dirk Koetter inexplicably punting with 1:19 left in the game and down by a touchdown (well maybe that was Dirk being Dirk)

I don't see the question being whether USC is 2nd or 3rd, but rather how low they should be dropped. Personally, I have the Trojans ranked 6th, behind the likes of Texas and Auburn. At least those squads have shown they win with stellar play and good coaching, rather than serendipity and happenstance.

Scott Boswell said...

Texas was whipped by the #1 team in the country by a lesser margin than ND was whipped by the #3 team in the country. ND has also struggled to the likes of GT and MSU which is equivlent of Texas struggling to ISU and Baylor. (Whih they didn't)

I do not understand the BCS. Perhaps the lotto balls didn't go in our favor.

Yost said...

SB,

I respectfully disagree about GT being like ISU or Baylor. They're a ranked team with their only loss being a close one to ND.

Allaha said...

I think your ballot is good -- except for Cal over Texas (which I would flip, although it is close). Texas lost to tOSU by 17, but the game was not decided until the second half; Cal got spanked by Tennessee (and there is no doubt tOSU is better than Tennessee). Cal's only impressive win is at home over Oregon; UT's only impressive win is at a neutral site over OU (which even after crap officiating lost at Oregon in the final moments by a point). Cal has certainly improved since their loss, but so has UT -- notably with regard to their QB, who threw 6 TDs last Saturday. Even both polls have UT at a consensus 5 vs. a consensus 11 for Cal (although this final fact may support you given how mindless the major polls can be!). In summary, the UT loss is "better" than the Cal loss, and the signature wins are comparable.

I agree with USC over UM, although it too is close.

Finally, I do not see how anyone can currently justify Louisville and W.Va. -- particuarly W.Va. -- in the Top 10, but one can persuasively make an argument for Arkansas at 9 or 10 (as the king did).

Allaha said...

By the way, given Peterson is out for the season, how should this affect ranking OU at 22? Should a key injury -- which obviously makes a team worse -- be reason enough to drop a team in the rankings?

(And no one should compare this situation to Manningham. While Manningham is great, Peterson is incomparably more important to his team.)

Richard Cranium said...

Scott, Georgia Tech is looking good as of late. They only have Calvin Johnson and are still winning. I think they are 5-1 and could win the ACC this year. I still hate ND but you can't compare GT to an Iowa State or Baylor.

Scott Boswell said...

Let me amend my comparison. GT is like Oklahoma. (Yes, I know that their season is doomed with AD out) The Oregon game, while funny to me as a Texas fan, is a wash competition-wise.

While I do not believe that Texas has a NC caliber team this year, I am really surprised that they are working up from #9.

Anonymous said...

When the PSU v Michigan game was winding down, I switched over to catch the last few minutes of Auburn v. Florida. This site's fave, Colin Cowherd, was doing the commentary. Colin was reflecting on the state of the BCS this year and he actually had the ba||s to say, "that’s why I like Michigan so much... they've got everything".

huh? WTF? Isn't this the same a$$bag who has been absolutely obsessed with "the erosion of Michigan" and "no team does less with more than Michigan."

Cowherd waffles more than a Washington politician pandering for votes in a tight election year. What a d0uchebag!

aladouche said...

Yo where's Miami?

You guys might wanna put them on the list before they come over there and kick some ass....

As long as you have the football you are fine, they can't hurt a fly...Once you drop the ball, man watch out for swinging helments and shit....Coker is the man.

As for the Texas over SC...hmmm Sam Houston State and North Texas were quality opponents.

And Auburn over SC? Remember the razorbacks.

West Va - grow some balls.

USC and Michigan are the only two teams that have a legitimate claim to #2

The King said...

Here's the thing about West Virginia. Though they have played no one, they have a very good shot of going undefeated. Louisville looks weak right now and Rutgers...give them a few years. So let's say WVa goes unbeaten. USC, playing like it has been, will never get through Cal, Oregon, and ND in November. If all goes well this weekend in Ann Arbor, OSU and UM will play for one slot in the BCS title game and West Virginia will pretty much just get handed the other one, since the SEC is going to continue to cannibalize itself.

Now. Let's say you're a fan of either UM or OSU (I'm a fan of one of them but I don't want to say which for the sake of maintaining neutrality here). Do you want to play West Virginia for the National Title? Do you REALLY?

I don't. I'd rather play USC, Auburn, Texas, Florida...pretty much ANYONE other than West Virginia. The way their offense is designed, it's worrisome to fans of my particular team. It freaks me out.

For the time being, I'm not going to look past Iowa, but it's just an interesting thing to point out...the "worst" Top Ten team in the country is also the one that would probably have the best shot of mowing through our defense.

(That said we'd score a kajillion points on theirs)

Anonymous said...

I'll admit I'm biased as a Florida Fan, but I honestly question whether anyone would be unbeaten with Florida's schedule at this point? (I think UM and OSU maybe, but even then I'm not so sure-- USC, honestly would have at least 2 losses and possilby a third with the Gators schedule).

--Socraticsilence

Anonymous said...

Michigan and number two go together well.

And you guys will never make it in the sports world if you insist on using good sense and logic.

But seriously, I think the SC victory over Arkansas was an aberration and their current close wins against so-so teams is really where they are. If the game were being played next week Michigan would win.

In the end, though, we may find that the real NC is played Nov 18.

Stay healthy for the showdown!

Go Bucks!

js said...

If we're going to blame WestVA for playing its schedule, then why don't we blame Florida for playing its schedule? They could have moved to a lesser conference (the Big East?). Why didn't they? (TV money, you said?)

You live with your conference reputation (the "best" in the land), you die with your conference schedule (the toughest in the land).

Pants McPants said...

I'd like to give credit to the SEC, I really would, but they have given me no evidence to do so...

They played a total of ONE road game out of conference...At Memphis...Please read that a few times...

Tennessee spanked Cal, USC spanked Arkansas...it's a wash...

Call me a Big Ten homer, but aside from possibly Tennessee, there isn't an offense in the SEC that would worry me in the slightest bit- I think OSU or Michigan could shut out most SEC teams. And since their offenses are so suspect, there's no way of knowing if their defenses are good enough to stop Troy Smith/Chad Henne, Pittman/Hart, Gonzalez/Ginn/Manningham/Arrington...

Scott in Columbus said...

Hey I was watching OSU beat the snot out of MSU and Paul McGuire was quoted as saying "He does'nt see anyone beating OSU". That and 50 cents will get you a cup of coffee. And then today on local radio they were talking about how Brent Fussberger was commenting on the hit that Alan Branch made on Anthony Morelli Sat.nite that put him out of the game and that he should have been penalized for it. I don't think Brent likes UM. We here in Cols. agree that he is a dick. Good Luck with Iowa,Personally I think tnat UM will win. Can't wait for Nov.18

Allaha said...

Aladouche: I truly feel sorry you. Clearly, the home schooling in your trailer park did not emphasize reading or writing, much less thinking. On the plus side, however, your entire life cycle will transpire in the aluminum cage you call a house, making it easier to choose which brother you want as your husband.

No one is suggesting a team other than UM or USC is deserving of the No. 2 or 3 spot. The discussion -- which is in written form, and therefore hard for you to understand -- focuses on the relative merits of the many one loss teams, as well as whether W.Va. and/or Louisville should be ranked above the best one loss teams.

I think The King is right: a deserving UM/tOSU winner will play an undeserving W.Va./L winner for the MNC -- which I can only hope is such a total annihilation by the Big Ten that a playoff system will be implemented in the near future.

Ungar Kelt said...

Explain why Texas is ranked higher than ND. Texas has had one of the easiest schedules in the top 25. Except for 1 game against Michigan and 3 quarters against MSU, ND has looked very good against decent opponents like GT, PSU, and Purdue. Texas has fattened up on a bunch of teams outside of the top 100 - why reward them with such a high ranking?

Anonymous said...

The gap between #3 and #4 in the BCS is so large (.186) that no matter what any team does, they will not be able to pass an undefeated USC.

So at this point, it looks like it will be a USC-OSU/UM national championship game...

Scott Boswell said...

Ungar Kelt-

First, Texas is a damn good team and won the NC last year. While VY is gone, that has to acount for some respect in the rankings. We still have a stellar defense and enough offense production to get by. As I stated earlier, I do not think that we have a NC calibar team.

But, if you want to compare SoS we can:

ND barely beat Georgia Tech. (Texas beat Oklahoma, their equivlent, convincingly)

ND beat a bad Penn State team. Texas beat a mediocre ISU team.

ND was embarressed by #3 Mich. Texas was embarressed by #1 OSU. (Both at home, Texas by a lesser margin)

ND needed a miracle to come back against MSU. Texas was down 10-0 after the first quarter to Baylor but ended up with 63 points and a 30+ point victory.

ND beat Purdue. Texas has no counterpart for it.

ND beat Stanford. Texas beat SHSU and Rice which would be the equivlent.

So, by this rationale, I don't see how Texas' schedule is so soft and ND is so strong. It's all for naught anyhow since you still have to play SC...but still.