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Friday, September 01, 2006

Northern Illinois Will Beat tOSU

Or at least give them a good game.

Would you believe cover the spread (tOSU -18)?

Although I don’t actually believe that young people will be celebrating in the streets of DeKalb early Saturday evening following a Huskies victory over the Buckeyes, I do believe that Northern Illinois will make it tough on tOSU.

Here are a few reasons why:

1) tOSU isn’t that great: Look, any team with Troy Smith and Ted Ginn is good and I don’t doubt that most of the Buckeyes making their first start on Saturday (including nine—nine!—on defense) are talented players. But is tOSU the best team in the nation? Why? Because they toppled a subpar Michigan team in Ann Arbor and drubbed a good—not great—Notre Dame team in the Fiesta Bowl last season? If tOSU manages to get to double digits in wins this year, I’ll grow a Buckstache and make passionate yet tender love to Holly Mangold (when she turns 18).

2) tOSU might be looking ahead to next week’s game at Texas: Is anyone else shocked that Ryan Hamby—the tOSU tight end who dropped a touchdown pass that would have clinched a win over Texas last year—hasn’t been publicly executed on High Street yet?

3) tOSU Under Tressell has struggled with similar teams: Consider the following Buckeye victories, which were all played in Columbus: (2001) Akron 28-14, (2002) Cincinnati 23-19, (2003) San Diego St. 16-13, Bowling Green 24-17, (2004) Marshall 24-21. In the last four of those games, tOSU prevailed over their pesky opponents largely due to the efforts of kicker Mike Nugent, who now plays for the New York Jets. A few days ago Tressell named redshirt freshman Aaron Pettrey the kicker, though he added that backup Ryan Pretorius—a 27 year old South African rugby player who has never played a game of organized football—may also get a chance to become the starter as well. Holy Matt Frantz!

4) NIU is pretty good: Coach Joe Novak’s Huskies have had six consecutive winning seasons and earned a record of 34-14 over the past four years. NIU tailback Garrett Wolfe is the leading returning major-college rusher (175.6 yards-per-game average), the top returning all-purpose yardage player (200.2 ypg.), and the number one returning NCAA 1-A career rusher (161.8 ypg.), though I don’t think he has an action figure based on him yet. Plus the team boasts an offensive tackle, Doug Free, who many expect will be a first round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.

My prediction: NIU 23 tOSU 21...ok, tOSU 20 NIU 17...alright, alright, tOSU 27 NIU 20. But it will be a tighter contest than almost anyone expects.

32 comments:

screwa2 said...

if NIU does, indeed, give OSU 'a good game', what would it mean?

-The Buckeyes have a young squad on D that needs to 'gel' - point taken. Though, bet you that this D will be looked back on, come late OCT/NOV as 'whoa, what were we thinking UNDERRATED.

-The Bucks played a QUALITY OOC team, undoubtedly. Gave UM a 'good game' last year if I recall, and with the caliber of players on their team, would do so again.

-The Buckeyes got a noteworthy test out of the gates - this may be a huge help when they travel to Austin to play, arguably, the biggest game of the season, only second to the BCS-NC. (on a side note, WVU ought to take note - would anyone really take that undefeated season seriously??)

-(my favorite)Come mid-November, when UM once again falls, that they are truly losing their momentum as a 'national powerhouse' program, yes, even with the 'winningest' record. (winningest - love it when you guys use that word.)

I welcome, and do hope the Buckeyes get a 'good game' from the Huskies!

Anonymous said...

While it has been Tressel's history to not run up the score and not show much offense, this game could be different. I do not dispute that NIU is a decent opponent. But with OSU having so many new starters on defense, I think they may try to score more just to take the pressure off of the D.

If Troy can keep from turning the ball over, I think they roll easy. If they don't, it could be closer than the spread.

They also need to be aware that meaningless scores at the end of a game make a score look closer than it really is (PSU-IU 1994), and voters rarely see games, just scores. Prediction OSU 48-20.

I suspect UM may have an easier time with overmatched Vandy since they lost Cutler. Without him they may have lost 10 games last year. This is Illinois in different colors and a PC mascot. Prediction UM 41-10.

Anonymous said...

Keep thinking tOSU is overrated and UoM is underrated, time will only tell. Keep posting like this, and just make sure when Meeshigan looses 4 this year you note it on this wonderful site. We will be laughing in Columbus. OSU 38 NIU 17. Go Bucks!!!

Anonymous said...

small correction: OSU-Cincinatti game in 2002 was played at Paul Brown Stadium, not in C-Bus...

Andy said...

I think the bucks will cover the spread. I also think you will regret the double digit win statement.

Anonymous said...

Wow. While I agree there is some potential for the Bucks to be over-rated, it seems unlikely in a 13 game season that they don't wind 10.

10-3 seems likely, with losses to three of Texas, UM, Iowa, bowl opponent, and random Big 10 team.

9-4 seems highly unlikely to me.

Hope Holly is ok with your proposition!

Anonymous said...

I'm a Buckeye fan, but your site is so kick-ass, I made it my home page.

Your analysis is (as always) spot on, but I want to raise chime in on 2 issues:

1. Can we pretend that the whole "Holly Mangold" saga is just a bad dream?
2. "Holy Matt Frantz"!?!?!?!?!? That was just plain MEAN!

Keep up the good work, bastards

Anonymous said...

Dear friends,


Twas the night before kick off and all through the state

All the fans couldn’t help but anticipate

The season was here, the waiting was done

`For the buckeyes were ranked number one

The players would lay their a sleep in their beds

While visions of touchdowns danced through their heads

With Tressel awake planning attack

T. Smith has some dime flat on her back

Game day would come and wouldn’t you know

The Silver bullets were poised to put on a show

On Troy on Gonzo on Pitt and on Teddy

No doubt in my mind that this team was ready

The opening game would be just a test

But the following week we’ll show them who’s best

Jim Tressel is a god in this college football town

His grey sweat vest is a nice little crown

Though the defense is young and a little bit new

We’ll still kick the sh!t out of the maize and blue!

Though this poem is done there is work I must do

On Saturday morning we’ll be at “The Shoe”



O H…….I O

Anonymous said...

I want to see the picture of your Buckstache if TOSU wins by double digits. It should be a Friday post and could you grow one with that faggish look that strip of hair that goes all the way around your face?

IC said...

Anon 5:42-
Thanks for the correction re. the stadium for the 2002 tOSU-Cincy game.


Andy-
I don't think I'll regret my prediction that tOSU won't reach 10 vicories. If they don't my prediction is correct and tOSU fans will be despondent. If they do reach 10 or more wins I get a shot at Holly Mangold.

It's a win-win.

WhiteDawg said...

Good post...haha keep wishing...The Ohio State Buckeyes will dominate in this game and prove they deserve the Preseason #1 Ranking.

Anonymous said...

Wow - amazing number of buckeyes
paying attention to this site...

Northern Illinois 27
tOSU 24

Garret Wolfe a great little running back, and the NIU line can control the game.

The buckets looking forward to Texas - big mistake.

Anonymous said...

If tOSU manages to get to double digits in wins this year, I’ll grow a Buckstache and make passionate yet tender love to Holly Mangold (when she turns 18).

Prepare to throw out the razor and drop trou. And if tOSU beats UM you have to do Holly in the AA public library.

Yost said...

Anon 9:46am,

LOL!!!!!!!!

Now that's the kind of smack talk I love about this game and rivalry.

IC said...

Anon 9:46-

I thought public libraries only allowed this kind of sexual activity.

Maybe that's only in OH..IO.

Andy said...

Wow...that is beautiful...and I thought Texas had some backwards folk. I love the fact that both Dad and Son were sporting a BUCKSTACHE...

TitleIX said...

ok--A) library JERK is a FREAK
what the HELL is with the BUCKSTACHES???? it is armageddon...

B) w/r/t football---NIU has an amazing running back who made us look silly for a while last year. I say the not-so-mighty-Gillette-needing-suckeyes will FALL!!!!

GOOOOOOO
BLUUUUUE

Jack Fu said...

I have little doubt that Northern Illinois will beat the spread, primarily because the OSU offense is gonna be vanilla with a capital V-A-N-I-L-L-A, as the offensive line - probably the best thus far in Tressel's tenure - should be able to shove around the smallish NIU defense. Goal #1: win the game. Goal #2: give Texas as little as possible to look at on film...

Anonymous said...

Nice prediction Nostradamus! I bet that 5 years ago you predicted that Lloyd would by 4 and 1 against Tressel by now.

Good job on handling that SEC powerhouse Vanderbilt. Very impressive.

Looking forward to 1 and 5 come November.

Yost said...

Anon,

Did you not read the post are can you simply not comprehend what you read? IC did not say OSU would lose, just that it would be closer than folks think.

Seriously, try harder next time.

IC said...

Anon:

As another King of Cool--The Fonz-- once said:
"I was wr...I was wro...I was wrong...."

To answer your question: I didn't make any predictions back in 2001 when Tressel was hired. I was kind of out of commission back then, seeing as how I had spent all my savings on a Y2K shelter a few years earlier. Still have a few cans of Mini Ravioli.

Anonymous said...

Yost - was 35 - 12 "closer than anyone expected"? I don't think so. Try harder next time.

Anonymous said...

LOL


What a suprise. A Michigan fan saying Ohio State is over rated. A Michigan fan who thinks just because they got used by NIU that somehow OSU will perform worse.

What does this game's outcome say about Michigan in how they couldn't stop Horvath and company but OSU blew them out and only allowed 54 rushing yards to Wolfe in the first half before the subs started playing on defense....on a defense that had 9 new starters?

Is this blog supposed to be a serious body of work or just high comedic value? Do you just make wild picks in the hopes that some day you might hit one and possibly look like a genius when you are really spraying a shotgun hoping to hit at least one due to the odds of probability?

I'm all about people being entitled to their opinion but for god's sake don't share yours. People might actually make the mistake of taking it seriously.

Better start growing your buckstache and good luck on Holly. The thing is who is to say she would put out for you?

Astound us again with your next pick....Oh let me guess....Texas will beat Ohio State? Man I didn't see that coming.

Continue with your football analytical genius. Pro teams and college universities are surely beating down your door to employ your expertise. Either than or possibly SNL will give you a call to do some writing for sketch comedy.

Yost said...

Anon 11:26pm,

What a surprise -- a Buckeye fan gets so flustered when somebody doesn't heep total praise on Tosu, he freaks out and starts talking nonsense.

First of all, Michigan beat NIU last year 33-17. How you consider Tosu's 35-12 score Saturday a "blow out" yet 33-17 is "used and abused."

In addition, Wolfe rushed for less yards against Michigan than the Bucks.

As for the rest of your, uh, rant, thanks for your opinion. Really. Seriously, I can tell you don't drink the Kool Aid in Columbus and your thoughts are rational and based strictly on football knowledge. Thanks for enlightening all who read your words. For now we may bask in your genius.

*sigh* Re-read what IC wrote again. It's really not a personal insult. You can probably even do it without punching your common law wife (that was an insult).

All he said was that, w/ 9 new starters on defense and having not beaten anybody rally good last year (remember, he included Michigan in that category), they don't appear to be the best team in the land. Is that so odious to you?

He also noted that Tosu might be looking ahead to the Texas game. Again, does that offend you so?

Third...ah, what's the point. You're obviously one of those guys who, unless someone outside the Buckeye family gives all praise to Ohio State, you, well, you come on a Michigan blog to rail about it.

In his post, IC didn't pick Tosu to lose, just said it might be closer than folks think.

Now, calm down and try to get on with your life.

Kybuckeye said...

You better give Holly a morning-after pill then. That'd be one ugly kid!!

Anonymous said...

"What a surprise -- a Buckeye fan gets so flustered when somebody doesn't heep total praise on Tosu, he freaks out and starts talking nonsense."


LOL

No. I'm not a buckeye fan. I know it is hard for your pocket sized intellect to grasp the possibility of people outside the state of Ohio thinking this predicition was simultaneously the hieght of hilarity and stupidity. But trust me on this....there are.

"In addition, Wolfe rushed for less yards against Michigan than the Bucks."

LOL

There is this thing called "The Big Picture" which you, in your self mastabatory frenzy seemed to have missed. I can understand how considering your uh...myopic narrowminded viewpoint...could've missed it.

Yes wolf gained more yards. But he gained most of them in junk time against OSU after the game was decided. But feel free to keep on blowing a gasket over it. I assure you it is quite funny to read.

Wolf first half 60 OSU 100 Michigan. (uh oh. Michigan fan meltdown in progress)

Total offense against OSU 343...Michigan 411

First quarter score OSU 21 NIU 0 (game over)
First quarter score Michigan 14 NIU 3 (game still matters)

See how that works? You don't get to cherry pick certain statistics and leave others out. Otherwise you run the risk of looking like a yipping retarded monkey and being humiliated in public....

LOL

...kind of like what I just did to you. :D


I would comment on the rest of your childish drivel...but what would really be the point? I don't see how I could possibly humiliate you even further and your credibility as an objective observer has went straight down the toilet

But thanks for commenting. I always enjoy a good laugh at someone elses expense. :D


As they say on the internet....

I win

Nuff said ;)

OHIOMAN said...

You mishgan pukes are so sad. Try to intellectualize this one - Lloyd Carr, 1-5 against the Bucks in the last six years. This time next September he's going to be the fluff girl in the Eastern Middle Tennesee Junior College locker room.

After our two-touchdown plus win against the Hornlickers, we are going to give mishgan a blindfolded, on your knees, hancuffed, phonebook across the back of the neck beating - Guantanamo Bay style.

Yost said...

Anon 1:54,

Yeah, you win. That's why you come back to a site you don't like over and over again at 2am to see if anybody responded to your genius so that you can reply and reply before going back to your lonesome existence with a smug smile on your face thinking, "Yeah, I showed them!"

Nice life. Good luck with that.

Anonymous said...

I am obsessive OSU fan. I know that UM predicted a loss and that OSU overwhemingly defeated a MAC team. Hardly impressive but a lot to leave desired. The game included 2 fumbles inside the NIU 5, so the score coulda easily been 50-12. Wolfe had a ton of yards, but i beleive only around 55 in the 1st half. I read this website everyday, and have nothing bad to say about it. Personally, if I was Yost, or brian, I would keep posting outrageous things just to get a reaction out of us. Its a rivalry, the best none the less, and UM doesn't like OSU. THats the way it is. I wouldn't doubt that some OSU fans thought UM would lose to Vandy, which is fine. It's what bloggin is about, if I had my own site, I would post that ND loses everygame this whole season (Go blue in about 3 weeks).
Bob
P.S. Goodluck with that buckstash. Im looking forward to some pictures of it

Yost said...

Bob,

Thanks for the comment. Love talking about the rivalry w/ a fan like you.

However, I know it was posted on an OSU site that we predicted OSU would lose to NIU. Not true. IC's post simply stated that he thought the game would be closer than folks thought. The title -- NI Will Beat tOSU -- wasn't a prediction, just a play on the old GET SMART tv series based on the next lines of the post.

Thanks for reading.

Anonymous said...

from a die hard NIU fan and alum - im sure glad i dont hate another school like you two hate each other (although, im not particularly fond of Toledo...)

Anonymous said...

Just wondered if you have called up Holly yet? You better start making your move now because tOSU is better than YOU thought they would be this year! Better live up to your promises.