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Saturday, July 15, 2006

Knew it was bad, didn't know it was THAT bad

Saw a stat on iBlog for Cookies (via MGoBlog) that is truly a frightening example of just how far Michigan's defense has fallen of late:

From 1995 to 1999, if Michigan was going into the 4th quarter with a lead of less than 10 points, U-M was 13-1 (93%).

From 2000-2005, with that same single digit lead, they were 8-10 (44%)!

As Vijay at iBlog points out, "That's right ... in the last 6 years, we are more likely to lose a game than to win it if we go into the 4th quarter with a small lead."

Oh...my...god.

Check out his post. Great work, Vijay.

16 comments:

St. Simons Island Nole said...

You want bad stats? How about being a Seminole fan, knowing in a close game, your field goal kickers (except Janakowski) all suck ass and will miss a kick vs Miami. Now that sucks!

tyrone butterfingers said...

Michigan doesn't even bother putting the game in the hands of the kicker. They make sure they get down by more than 3 points, while also letting the opposing offense run out almost the entire clock. Then, just in case they have a chance to pull out a miracle win, they make sure Tyler Ecker is on the field so he can fuck it up.

Papa Steve said...

LOL. I love stats like that. I can't remember which games specifically, but on several occasions in the past few years I have said to myself, 'We should have just let them score in 10 seconds and put the game in the hands of the offense with 2 minutes left, rather than leave the defense on the field so the opponent can run out the clock before they score.'

Seriously, in at least 2 or 3 cases, it may have been the smarter thing to do, even though I know that is in stark contrast to all conventional football wisdom.

I hope that is not the case in any games this year......

Mike said...

That's some excellent analysis. The numbers don't lie. But I think we can all agree that Gonzalez was not forced out of bounds and in the series pictured it was ineligable reciever downfield.

blue2004 said...

you know that if Penn State scored one play later, they win the game. I was actually fairly confident after they scored, we had enough time to go down the field

BaggyPantsDevil said...

Ugh! While you're at it, why don't you give me a nice paper cut and pour lemon juice on it?

Let's just hope that all the talk of Ron English's affinity for violence and aggression is true.

cottoncandy said...

mike, we can't all agree. Although, I guess if you don't believe in the science of video tape, you could believe that the actual tape showing Gonzales forced out was merely put in the historical record to test your faith.

You guys don't take ass whupin's very well.

Oh yea, Fuck Michigan.

mike said...

Strange, more than 1 OSU fan has referred to the 25-21 loss as "an ass whooping" or "ass whupin'" if you wish. I think you have to limit any phrase that involves "whooping or kicking ass" to a spread 7+ points. I also think I have too much contact with OSU fans.

cottoncandy said...

mike, at least we can agree on one thing: you have too much contact with Buckeye fans. We would certainly prefer much less.

Watch last year's game again. But for Buckeye fumbles and a shanked punt, the spread would have been 20. The Bucks played their worst game of the year, and still won. Ouch.

Brad said...

Well cc, there's one way we can lessen our contact with OSU fans, not that I expect you to figure it out.

surrounded in columbus said...

mike/brad/et al,
tosu never just "wins". they always "kick ass", "dominate", etc., anytime they score more points. they have won more 1-2 point "dominating ass kickings" than anyone else in the history of ncaa football!

they also never get beat by a "better" team. let's face it- how could anyone ever have a "better" team than tosu??? they either "beat themselves" by "playing their worst game" of the season or the ref's screw them, but the other team is never "better". UT? PSU? luck, self inflicted mistakes, or bad refs, but never a better team on the other side of the ball.

and before cc or any other tosu clowns go to argue this, please go ahead and list the last time tosu "eked" out a win, was "just lucky to walk away w/ a win", or even more unlikely- tell us the last time you lost to a "better" team.

never happens, never will.

and yes, i do have too much contact w/ tosu, too.

tyrone butterfingers said...

Yeah, OSU played their "worst game of the season" 3 times last year.

And don't forget these classics:

"If they played us now..." (said most recently about Texas after the Fiesta Bowl)

"If they played us at home..." (said most recently about Penn St. last year)

"We're playing the best football in the country right now" (said after the Fiesta Bowl and the Alamo Bowl)

Even after the Rose Bowl, there were some OSU fans who felt that OSU was the best team in the country. Laughable.

Anonymous said...

nah, not the best team in the country -

-just a whole lot better than the Wolverines.

pretty simple.

Yost said...

Yeah, a whole lot better... like 5 points thanks to a last second TD.

Anonymous said...

And yet enough to win. It was beautiful.

surrounded in columbus said...

beautiful? you need to get out more. you choked at home against the Longhorns. had your head's handed to you by PSU. last year was supposed to be "the year" for you, remember?? or don't you read the Dispatch?

2 returning starters on D? you'll be out of it by the morning of 9/10. how's that for beautiful?